Data compiled over the weekend tells a more mixed story than some early seller chatter suggested. American Express’s annual Small Business Saturday survey put nationwide spending at an estimated $18 billion this year, down roughly 18% from $22 billion in 2024, even as some individual sellers reported a strong Thanksgiving Day’s calm before Small Business Saturday through Cyber Monday.
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The headline numbers
By American Express’s own count, nationwide Small Business Saturday spending actually came in lower than the prior year, with survey respondents citing persistent high prices and softer consumer confidence as the drag. That’s a useful reminder that individual-shop anecdotes and platform-wide or nationwide totals don’t always move together; we don’t have an independently verified, Etsy-specific figure for Giving Tuesday engagement this year, so we can’t confirm whether it broke records the way some sellers assumed.
Why this matters beyond just one good weekend
Nationwide spending being down doesn’t mean the different tone for Small Business Saturday advice we gave heading into the weekend was wrong, but it does mean we can’t point to this weekend’s aggregate numbers as proof of it. Sellers who leaned into story and connection rather than pure discount messaging may still have been working with the grain of actual buyer behavior in a tighter-spending year, that’s a reasonable read of the individual seller reports we’ve seen, just not something the nationwide totals confirm on their own.
What sold well, based on the data and seller reports combined
Personalized and customized items continued to perform strongly across the weekend, consistent with gift-shopping behavior we’ve tracked all season. Categories with strong storytelling potential, items with a clear maker narrative or craft process, appear to have benefited disproportionately from Small Business Saturday’s values-driven shopper specifically, more so than categories competing primarily on price.
What this means heading into the rest of December
If your shop saw a strong Cyber Five this year, that’s worth celebrating on its own terms, but with nationwide spending down, treat it as a sign your shop specifically is doing something right rather than proof of a broader tailwind you can count on repeating. If your weekend was softer than hoped, the nationwide decline suggests the overall spending environment was part of the story too, worth factoring in alongside a look at your own listings and messaging before assuming the issue is shop-specific.
What we’re watching
Whether nationwide Small Business Saturday and Giving Tuesday spending rebounds later in the season, and whether the individual strong-performing shops we’ve heard from represent a broader pattern or just those specific shops, a question we’ll keep circling back to in our weekly recap coverage as December unfolds.
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